Dear Colleagues:

It seems to me that the issue of anthropogenic influences on climate change is one of understanding.  There are many aspects to this but it can be somewhat simplified.  If it is however too simplified then the meaning can be lost.

I have been pursuing my PhD on this subject and am beginning to be able to explain certain things.  These thoughts may be important for you and your readers.  The following ideas are excerpted from my Thesis.

We need to consider the baseline.  Is the baseline today?  Is the baseline at the beginning of settled agriculture (approx. 10,000 years ago – disputed by some/ earliest settlements perhaps 40,000 years) or is the baseline a moving target?   In my research I consider the Earth’s Ecosystem as having reached a dynamic equilibrium before the emergence of human beings.   This means that we can study geologic and evolutionary trends that led to such an outcome.  Then we can look at the emergence of human beings and what their impact has been on these systems.

In a nutshell.  The timeline and impact seems to have been.

• Formation of the Earth
  

• Geologic and Evolutionary time leading to dynamic equilibrium with surface of the earth completely colonized by plants and animals. Livable atmosphere created by photosynthesis scrubbing carbon and returning oxygen at precise levels that maintain temperature, humidity and breathable air for mammals in symbiosis with all other life forms. (read deep ecology)
  

• Emergence of human beings – leading to eventual dominance of species.  (read Darwin)
  

• Cultural, Scientific, Artistic, Economic, Extractive, Consumptive, Militant, Development of human civilization and society.  (Main focus of human thought and action – read human history)
  

• Biodiversity Loss as an unintended outcome of human development.  (observable worldwide)
  

• Reduction of Biomass as an almost inevitable outcome of biodiversity loss (scientifically arguable – it may be possible to maintain biomass without biodiversity but why?  Also if biodiversity is lost there is greater loss than simply reduction of biomass)
  

• The Reduction of Biomass means that gas exchange – the absorption of C02 and production of Oxygen by plants (in symbiosis with animals) is an inevitable outcome.
  

• The Reduction of accumulated organic matter (necromass) is an inevitable outcome of the reduction of biomass.
  

• The Reduction of organic matter leads to inevitable loss of soil fertility (can be partially mitigated with chemical fertilizers but not completely)
  

• The reduction of biodiversity, biomass and accumulated organic matter necessarily leads to loss of microclimates, to temperature differentials, to changes in soil moisture and relative humidity.
  

• The reduction of biodiversity, biomass and accumulated organic matter necessarily also leads to the reduction of infiltration and retention of rainfall in situ.  This seems to be the indicator and determinant of sustainability.
  

• Predictable outcomes from the alteration of these systemic functions are:  Flooding, Mudslides, Drought, Dust storms, Desertification, Increased Temperatures, Increased Incidence of Extreme Weather Events, Climate Change.
  

I have been following this line of inquiry since 1995.  There are results.  It is possible to restore ecosystem function to large-scale areas where it has been lost.  It is possible to restore perennial stream flows in places that have seen water flowing only in the rainy season even for long periods.  This can happen within a few years time.  It is possible to re-vegetate areas of land that have been denuded over long periods and large areas.  The lives of hundreds of millions and even billions of people now living in poverty at the edges of large degraded ecosystems can be completely changed by understanding that ecosystem dysfunction includes carbon disequilibrium and valuing the land and the people.  We are envisioning “Integrated Poverty Eradication and Large-Scale Ecosystem Rehabilitation” to address human impact on Climate Change as well as addressing poverty, disparity, food insecurity, desertification, biodiversity loss, migration, conflict and more.

If you are interested please contact me.  If you use these thoughts in your writing it is honest and courteous to attribute the source.

Personally, I do not find this boring.  It is fascinating and understandable and I think that the people worldwide can understand and appreciate this.  It suggests certain courses of action that will restore equilibrium to the Earth’s ecosystems.  Everyone on earth has a role to play and everyone’s efforts make a difference.

It is important to note that one of the findings from this research is that “Human activity without ecological understanding leads to ecosystem collapse”, which suggests that not only is this interesting but this is crucial if we want to ensure that future generations are able to have a sustainable future.

John D. Liu

Patrick John D. Liu

Dear Colleagues:

Greetings and best wishes on a Sunday afternoon from Beijing.  Congratulations on all your good work.

I’d like to alert you to a line of enquiry that suggests functional solutions to Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss, Desertification, Food Insecurity, Poverty, Disparity, Migration, Conflict, and Population Growth.

Although it is quite complex it can be summed up as “Integrated Poverty Eradication and Large-Scale Ecosystem Rehabilitation”.

This is based on scientific evidence that show the effects that biodiversity, biomass, accumulated organic matter and microclimates below tree canopies or above grass canopies, have on gas exchange, nutrient cycling and infiltration and retention of rainfall.   Simultaneously various econometric evaluations are emerging that provide an overwhelming rationale to invest and restore ecosystem function wherever it has been degraded.   And finally on functional models that show that it is possible to restore ecosystem function if you understand the principles which govern functionality.

This is rather welcome news, however, in order to restore ecosystem function over large areas it is necessary to end the behaviors that degraded the functionality in the first place.  This means that the growing human populations must change their behaviors replacing unsustainable lifestyles and livelihoods with sustainable ones.  This suggests that subsistence agriculture must end abruptly … not slowly over time.  Gradually the picture has become more and more clear and now it is possible to see why and how ending poverty for millions immediately is possible and what the implications of this would be for many of our most serious problems.

I first became interested in this when I began documenting the Loess Plateau in China.

What was most fascinating about the Loess Plateau when I first began to study it in 1995 was that this area was fundamentally ecologically ruined and had been for a very long time.  This effectively meant that the 10’s of millions of people who lived there were desperately poor.  Although the Loess Plateau had been the center of power and affluence for the Qin, Han and Tang Dynasties – some of the most creative in Chinese history - it has been famous for poverty and suffering for over 1000 years, scientifically described as the most eroded place on Earth and euphemistically known as “China’s Sorrow”.  For more than a millennium the region was continuously plagued by Floods, Droughts, Mudslides and dust storms.

Since restoration efforts began almost 15 years ago there has been a dramatic improvement in ecosystem function over broad areas.  Income and productivity increased as well by 10 times.   There is evidence that hydrological function can return when vegetation cover is restored, fertility and productivity can increase with organic matter and soil moisture and that if you differentiate and designate ecological and economic land (and resist the desire to choose all the species) it is possible to ensure that biodiversity will survive into future generations.

You can watch “The Lessons of the Loess Plateau” at <www.earthshope.org>.

You can see my recent presentation at the TALLBERG FORUM at the following URL  (or in the news posting below this text).

http://webbtv.compodium.se/tallberg09/ondemand/034/

You can see and hear Gro Harlem Brundtland, Amory Lovins, and all the other speakers at this years TALLBERG FORUM at the following URL

http://webbtv.compodium.se/tallberg09/

While the work in China is impressive it is not standing alone.

In the United States between 1933 and 1942, 5% of American Males worked in the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).  This was in reaction to a financial crisis (The Great Depression –beginning in 1929) and a huge ecological disaster (The Dust Bowl).  The men of the CCC planted between 3 and 5 billion trees and made 700 parks.  This highly successful intervention helped North America to sustain growth and affluence in the second half of the 20th century.

I’ve also been studying this in Africa, South America, South East Asia and Europe – so worldwide.  Scientific analysis of the data leads to the conclusion that soil moisture, fertility, relative humidity, microclimates, are all dynamic.  If we continue with existing trends then we can predict the outcome as long term negative trends accumulate in a vicious cycle.  But if we understand the natural systems functionality and do not disrupt it we can benefit from a virtuous cycle where organic matter, biomass and biodiversity are restored, helping us to achieve massive carbon sequestration gains, increased fertility from nutrient cycling and we can restore infiltration and retention of rainfall naturally, regulating the hydrological cycle and returning soil moisture, relative humidity and microclimates.  Ultimately if taken to scale this can reverse the trends that are leading to desertification, biodiversity loss, extreme weather events and even human induced climate changes.  But we have to realize that the scale is global and these disruptions are not a local problem but one that is a systemic problem on a planetary scale.

Once we get our minds around the size of the task – no less than ending poverty and restoring degraded land everywhere on earth – we can begin to see how this could be done.

A large number of specific actions have been identified.  These seem to work wherever they are tried in China, North America, Africa and Elsewhere.  It is possible to physically change the rainfall dynamic and infiltrate and retain the rain where it comes down.  These are a mixture of physical and biological measures.  World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) and Best Practices in Watershed Management contain most of these.  This helps to restore vegetation cover and biodiversity which then accumulates organic matter.  It is also important to replace the burning of biomass with a renewable energy source and this can be Methane Generation which provides sanitation benefits, energy for development and the fastest method for creating organic compost.  With infiltration and retention of rainfall it is possible to achieve tremendous gains in biomass production, accumulation of optimal levels of organic matter and if we differentiate and designate economic and ecological land, we can ensure that biodiversity will survive into future generations.

The lessons that are emerging to combat human induced climate change are many.  It is now possible to see predictable and catastrophic outcomes if we do not make a major non-marginal correction in human society and economy.   As the world moves toward Copenhagen it is important that solutions compete based on the merit of the ideas and not simply to enrich the wealthy who can manipulate the very large sums of money being discussed.

Revaluing ecosystem functions such as water, soil fertility and biodiversity and recognizing that restoring these functions is the key to reducing human impact on the climate provides the rationale to transfer very large amounts of money to restoration of degraded parts of the Earth.  This will benefit everyone by helping to mitigate against human induced climate change and it will help to redress the disparity that has left 100’s of millions of people desperately poor at the edges of large degraded ecosystems.

There are two main strategies discussed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  (UNFCCC) for the Fifteenth Convening of the Parties in Copenhagen in December.  The first can be described as Enhanced Clean Development Mechanism primarily using Carbon Capture and Storage and Energy Efficiency to mechanically reduce human greenhouse gas emissions.  The second is the Reduction of Emissions through the Decrease in Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) or essentially protecting the last remaining forests from being lost.  While it is possible to see merits in both of these efforts it is difficult to see how these can be suggested to be solutions.  With Enhanced CDM it is possible to lower human emissions but impossible for this alone to rebalance the carbon cycle.   It seems to go without saying that we need to protect all the remaining functional ecosystems which REDD is to do.

Objective analysis shows that there is vast carbon sequestration potential as well as many other benefits to restoring large-scale damaged ecosystems that cannot be found in Enhanced CDM or REDD.  Restoration also has the benefit of helping to take the poorest people in the world and make them into the solution while ending their poverty forever.

While this line of inquiry is challenging it may offer the best solution to myriad problems that are in fact inter-related and can only be solved by comprehensive solutions that address them all.

I think we are all challenged to find and analyze solutions in the public dialogue.

If this is interesting to you I’d be happy to write for any of your publications or to provide broadcast programming on the subject for your television stations.  Or, if you would like to follow this line of inquiry yourselves I would be happy to provide you with interviews, databases and contact information that I have gathered.

John D. Liu

Patrick Climate change, Ecosystem Rehabilitation, John D. Liu, Sustainable development

This is John’s presentation on the ongoing recovery of the Loess Plateau and the hope it embodies for land conservation and an end to poverty in our time. The Loess project’s multifaceted effort remains an inspiration for sustaining life and land worldwide.

John in Tällberg

Patrick Video Library